Adaptive Shorts 1 - Results
Abstract
We investigate the nature of chain bidding for adaptive short through a series of isolated experiments.
Method
Our researches presented the community with a series of deck pairs to consider as adaptive short matchups. Participants were instructed to indicate which deck they would like to play as well as what their maximum bid to play that deck would be. Participants were asked not to spend more than five minutes evaluating each matchup and not to consult outside sources (e.g. DoK).
Results
1: Anakim vs The Magician
The decks (DoK):
Here we see two strong decks with, both rated 80 at the time of this writing, and a wide range of bidding preferences. Participants were split on which deck was preferred, which each gaining significant maximum bids - 7 chains for Anakim and 11 for The Magician.
This is a wide gap, wider than may be attributed to the play style or preference alone.
Those with an eye for Dark Tidings may recognize Anakim as the stronger deck in absolute terms, while adaptive veterans will respect the chain mitigating efficiency of The Magician.
2: Rektor vs Jerzy
The decks (DoK):
Of the matchups presented as part of this study, this may be the only that had been played in the wild. Empirical evidence has shown Rektor to be the heavy favorite the much lower SAS. Would you pass on the 91 SAS deck and bid for the 73?
3: Combugrieve vs Emmeline
The decks (DoK):
Yet another matchup where both decks earned high bids from different participants of this study.
On paper, Emmeline appears to have an advantage in consistency. But can this combo deck overcome the raw consistency of Combugrieve?
4: Guadalupe vs Denizag
The decks (DoK):
Guadalupe is clearly the stronger deck. But is it better by 5 chains or 12? Be wary of underestimating efficient decks with recursion and a key cheat.
5: Mayor vs Grigorov
The decks (DoK):
This is matchup is a grind, but which deck would come out on top? Grigorov needs to use its board to win. Can it do so consistently through Dry the River and Ulfberht device? Our respondents were split on that question.
6: “彈簧刀”伊萬·庫克 vs Aniwog
The decks (DoK):
Aniwog is clearly at a disadvantage, but how many chains is too many? The Dark Tidings deck has burst potential and can build a board. Will the Mass Mutation deck ("Switchblade") find its board control in time with 11 chains?
7: Ableson vs Triptibullus
The decks (DoK):
Responses were universally in favor of Ableson, but with a range of 10 chains! We're not certain what the correct number is, but we can say that we admire the spirit of any archon willing to risk 16 chains.